Anyone who has read the title will think that I am going to talk about sports betting. I am not going down that path, although it is true that to
Anyone who has read the title will think that I am going to talk about sports betting. I am not going down that path, although it is true that today’s topic can be applied not only to trading and sports betting, but to many aspects of our lives.
A few days ago I read an anecdote about “Cholo” Simeone, the current coach of Atlético de Madrid and who years ago coincided as a player with Maradona at Sevilla. In the interview, Simeone told an anecdote that made all the spectators smile.
In one set of the game, Simeone shot on goal from a distance of thirty meters. We all know how difficult it is to score a goal from so far away. As you can imagine, the action did not end in a goal. Maradona approached Simeone and asked him if he had ever scored a goal from that distance, to which “El Cholo” replied that he had not. Maradona’s reaction was what any mentor would say to his pupil: “And why the hell do you kick from there?”
By now you will have discovered the parallelism between that opportunity and those that we provoke every day before the charts. If you realize I said “provoke”. In soccer, the ball is played trying to “provoke” the most optimal situation to shoot on goal. Which is the most optimal? Well, the one with the most chances of success. I recommend an exercise: check the goals of the last matchday, in how many of them did you shoot from outside the area? And from thirty meters?
Now back to our business, investments. If you notice, I have used the term “provoke” referring to forcing the conditions to bring the ball as close to the goal and, once there, shoot it. Traders should not “provoke” anything, because what happens on the charts is not going to depend on us, do you understand?
The independent or retail trader is a passive subject within the evolution of the price.
If you’ve been at this for a while you’ll have perfectly understood what I’m talking about. How many times have you tried to move the price, either by increasing your position, risk, or even by clenching your fists hard on the table? The price will do what it has to do, but it is more likely to do one thing than another depending on the moment. For this we help ourselves with the conditions.
That is the kit of the matter: in the conditions, in the patience to wait for them to be fulfilled and in executing the order without hesitation, at the most suitable moment, without haste and trusting that the odds are on our side.
When a soccer player takes a penalty, he does not think or doubt, because he knows in advance how he is going to take it and where he is going to direct the ball. He will have one, two, or three choices at most, but he knows that casting him from one of them has the odds on his side.
We changed sports, now we go to basketball or handball. When a player shoots for a basket or goal and misses, he turns around and goes back to the other side of the court to defend, he is a mechanic. He knows that it is no use lamenting or thinking about action. It is already past and he should not condition him in the next play. It was a simple pitch, one of many he will throw in that game and in his life.
Trading operations must be given the same relevance as the moves I just mentioned. No one likes to miss a pitch or suffer a loss on a stock trade, but the important thing is that if you stick to a pre-planned plan, the long-term results are very likely to be positive.
All this needs nuances, of course, but the interesting thing about this analysis is that haste and lack of planning will take you away from consistent results, even more so when someone is weak, emotionally speaking, and gets frustrated every time they don’t hits the target
That day Simeone relied on his talent and luck to score a historic goal. It is likely that he wanted to hit the table and say, “hey, I’m the king.” Egos aside, I’m sure he had trained him for many years and someone with his professionalism did it on purpose and in context. But, what will happen to the trader who, lacking training and planning, enters a trade trusting to luck? Dragged by greed, he will compromise his capital wanting to complete the operation that quenches his egomania and perhaps the opportunity to position her on social networks to feel, like Simeone, king for a day.